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How bad will the rain be this week? Let’s put it this way: Don’t curse out the forecaster

Pumpkins. Spider webs. Ghosts.

It may be the beginning of October, but everyone is getting into the Halloween spirit. Even Mother Nature.

It must be why our week is looking gloomy, stormy — and perfect for a Halloween movie.

The rain started Monday morning, but in typical South Florida fashion, the heavy stuff isn’t expected to begin until the afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

We’re talking 70 percent ruin-your-lunch-break type rain, with thunderstorms possible.

The heavy rain and thunder will last at least until Thursday night, with localized flooding possible across all of South Florida, according to the weather service.

Marginal risk of flooding

The forecast is calling for an additional one to two inches of rain across South Florida through Wednesday, with those on the east coast metro areas possibly seeing two to four inches.

“This will especially be the case in areas that experience repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, yielding increasing potential for excessive runoff,” according to the forecast.

Those living along the east coast metro areas have a “marginal risk of flooding” starting Monday afternoon, according to the hazardous weather outlook. By Tuesday, that risk may extend to most of South Florida.

But, wait, there’s more.

Forecasters say there’s also a high risk of “life threatening” rip currents along Atlantic beaches at least until Monday night. Swimmers, this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t check the conditions before taking a dip Tuesday or any other day this week.

There’s an “elevated rip current risk” until Sunday, according to the outlook, because of northeast swells and seas building up in the Atlantic waters.

A Tropical Disturbance Too

Yup, that’s a tropical disturbance on the radar. The new system materialized just off Florida’s southwest tip on Monday, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance only a ten percent chance of forming in the next few days.

What it does have a good chance of is dumping rain on South Florida as it crosses to the Sunshine State’s east coast. It’s predicted to dissolve by Wednesday.

What about the Keys?

The Keys, like the rest of South Florida, is getting swamped with rain. Monday’s 70 percent chance of rain jumps to a whopping 80 percent by nightfall until Tuesday night, when it drops back to 70.

The good news is that unlike the rest of South Florida, the Keys will start to see their rain chances slide down to 50 percent Wednesday before diving to a low 30 percent by Wednesday night.

In terms of hazards, the weather outlook says the Keys may see a few thunderstorms with wind gusts of 40 mph or higher and possible cloud to surface lightning strikes.

Locally heavy rainfall may also cause freshwater flooding. Forecasters are also warning that salt water from minor tidal flooding may make it difficult to drive along the roads, so be careful.

Besides a free car wash, there is a silver lining to this downpour.

By Friday morning, the rain chances across all of South Florida, including the Keys will have dropped to a low 30 percent, giving us hope that our weekend won’t be rained out.

Because, let’s be honest, that’s what we’re really worried about.

Miami Herald Staff Writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.

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Real Time/Breaking News Reporter. There’s never a dull moment in Florida — and I cover it. Graduated with honors from Florida International University. Find me on Twitter @TweetMichelleM
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