A new storm is likely to form in the Atlantic this week. What the models show
.png "The hurricane center is tracking two potential systems in the Atlantic basin.")
There’s now a very good chance a tropical depression — at least — will form in the Eastern Atlantic this week, but so far most early model runs have suggested it would steer clear of the Caribbean.
On Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave the tropical wave a 70% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or stronger in the next two days and an 80% chance within the next seven— a jump from earlier in the day.
The system is still thousands of miles away from the United States. It’s on track to approach the easternmost Caribbean islands at the end of the week.
Residents there, the hurricane center said, “should monitor the progress of this system.”
Most long-range computer models show a similar predicted path for the system — a straight trek east through the end of the week and then a curve north, just like most of the other storms this year.
“A strong front over Florida by this upcoming weekend will block and deflect the storm east (so it is no threat to Florida) while also hopefully giving us a nice cooldown!” wrote Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist at WFLA Tampa Bay, on X Monday morning.
The next storm name on the list is Jerry.
Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane center also flagged another disturbance to watch. The trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days and could dump heavy rain on the region.
As of 2 p.m., the hurricane center gave it a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days.
This story was originally published October 6, 2025 at 8:00 AM with the headline "A new storm is likely to form in the Atlantic this week. What the models show."
